So, we are well into the new year with January nearly over. What does this year hold if I had a crystal ball?
Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Mania
I don’t think this is over and I don’t know where Bitcoin will go. At one point, I thought Ripple might take over the #1 spot, but that was before South Korean exchanges were pretty much removed from being counted. Now, I don’t know what the future holds for Bitcoin, but I’m certain it will be volatile. I’m also certain that cryptocurrencies, in whichever form they may take, will succeed in the long run due to blockchain technology, although I do not believe it will be Bitcoin’s blockchain due to speed issues.
Oil (WTI) will hit $80 a barrel
WTI Oil has already risen over $6 since the end of December 2017. It’s now standing at approximately $66 a barrel per oilprice.com and tradingeconomics.com sites. This is a pretty rapid rise in about three week’s time.
Furthermore, the energy sector itself is now the leader on the stock market for 1 and 3-month periods (5.64% and 9.55%, respectively, which is higher than the next highest for Health Care at 2.81% in the one-month period, and Consumer Discretionary at 4.15% in the 3-month period). It is almost the sector leader for the 6-month time period in the stock market (11.09% versus 11.58% for IT).
At the current rate, oil will be at $80/barrel before the end of the year. It will likely be at $80/barrel before October. Heck, it could even be at $80/barrel before the end of April.
MoviePass is a company that I’ve bought shares in through their majority stakeholder Helios & Matheson (HMNY). Because of this, I have an avid interest in how this company fares. In early January, they announced hitting 1.5 million subscribers.
Per iOS store downloads (reference this article), it appears they will likely also hit 2 million subscribers by the end of January, 5 million by August/September, and 10 million by the end of the year.
I predict that MoviePass will become a huge player in the movie going (and movie producing due to MoviePass Ventures) business. This company is likely going to be the next Netflix in regards to stock price, since it’s managed to grow its subscriber base faster than any other service on the planet. That stock, though, will be the IPO that MoviePass launches, since they are required to launch an IPO in March 2018. The stock that will go up in value drastically may not necessarily be HMNY stock.
Yep, I think that GE is going bankrupt. It may not happen in 2018, but it’s happening. I think that this is the next Enron or Lehman Brothers.
Additionally, I think that GE’s woes spell out bad things for the stock market, and the company probably should be taken out of the DOW (I don’t care about their market cap–they are a sinking ship with poor accounting practices that could spook investors in other sound businesses).
Provided GE doesn’t totally sink right when another major issue is happening in the economy, we can all hope that the stock market and economy do not sink as well during that time.